Prospects of a War in Taiwan
#1
There is one commentator on the Dissident Right whom I enjoy in regards to his podcast and commentary on Buddhism (a religion I have long respected). Said intellectual has recently gone all-in with Russia worship and uncritically shares posts from Intel Slava (a pro-Russian Telegram run by a Muslim). In other words, he has become a useful idiot and a Eurasianist. And while I hold no love for Ukraine nor do I have a fond view of NATO, I have grown so tired of DR Third Worldism and their frankly anti-, or at least post-West views. You will see me celebrate the use of Chechen or Dagestani soldiers to butcher a European people. That is not my "right-wing." Anyway, preamble aside, this commentator recently said that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent. Before sharing my opinion on this matter, I would like to present some neutral facts: 

1. The PLA dwarfs the ROC military at 2 million vs 170,000 active duty troops. However, Taiwan's military reserves are a respectable 1.5 million. On the whole, neither military is experienced in battle. The PLA is huge but inexperienced and, like Russia, prone to graft. The PLA is also designed as a gendarmerie, i.e., it does not have fully deployable expeditionary units. Taiwan, on the other hand, has struggled recently since going to an all-volunteer military (lack of enthusiasm, poor readiness). 
2. China enjoys air and naval superiority with 3,285 total military aircraft to Taiwan's 741; a fleet of approximately 777 ships vs. 117. However, none of this material is tested in battle, so is of unknown quality until proven otherwise. 
3. Amphibious operations are much more difficult than land invasions. A Chinese invasion would require combined arms (sea, land, air), plus littoral combat that would render Chinese ships vulnerable to attack. Russia's less-than-stellar war in Ukraine does not bode well for China. Ukraine is larger than Taiwan, but flatter and more easily transversed by armored columns. 
4. Taiwan enjoys the use of better equipment, including homegrown weapons systems plus imports from the US, UK, Israel, and France. How much better these systems are than China's is up for debate, but please take note of the fact that anti-Western or at least otherwise Sinophilic governments in Africa and Asia tend to prefer Russian weapons to Chinese ones. 
5. The threat of intervention is present. We can debate the willingness of countries like Japan or South Korea to go to war to protect Taiwan, but the threat is there and it is a deterrent. Besides Tokyo and Seoul, strong anti-China sentiment exists in Canberra (best forces in the region), Ho Chi Minh City (large army), Jakarta (large army and naval forces), and increasingly Manila (well-tested combat forces). Malaysia and Singapore are neutral actors owing to trade and racial ties to Beijing. China's only friends would be Cambodia and North Korea. Thailand is a wildcard. 
6. There exists the very real possibility of a naval blockade and a starvation-inducing food embargo. Russia could cover the difference, but Moscow cannot produce to the same level as China. 

Ultimately, I do not see this war happening anytime soon. First and foremost, the Han is not a warrior race. For all the evils that China does in the world, the CCP is not prone to military adventurism. Instead, most of Beijing's limited military aims are accomplished thanks to the Russian military (see: Syria). Now that the Russian military is busy, China is less likely to undertake a risky invasion all by itself. Stiff Ukrainian resistance is also probably changing the calculus in Beijing. I am sure that many PLA brass are rethinking their assumption that the Han of Taiwan would not fight their racial brethren. Also, and most importantly, a violent war for Taiwan would destroy the local economy and infrastructure. Would Beijing deliberately destroy what would be its most prosperous province? I don't think so. 

What are your thoughts? 

(Sorry for any typos)
#2
old article, but still: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/tai...s-no-ammo/
#3
(03-26-2022, 11:26 AM)Guest Wrote: old article, but still: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/tai...s-no-ammo/

Yes, I have heard that Taiwan's logistics are horrid. That's one point in China's favor.
#4
Indeed, the Han, like all other Asian peoples for that matter, are very pacifistic when in a hegemonic order (which China as a state is and always was). Only way to make them aggro is tribal steppe nomad state, or feudal-tribal clusterfuck in the case of Japan. In any "stable" state, goading any of them into any sort of conflict is, well, something that is very slow and very tedious.

But what I believe, first and foremost, is that they don't *want* to invade it, and believe they can over time basically bribe them into joining as the possessed corpse of the US eats itself. We'll see, but I don't think it will happen unless something very drastic and brash occurs.
#5
China will never invade Taiwan, as Sphag wrote. They are the race least fit to rule the world.
#6
(03-26-2022, 01:16 PM)Svevlad Wrote: Indeed, the Han, like all other Asian peoples for that matter, are very pacifistic when in a hegemonic order (which China as a state is and always was). Only way to make them aggro is tribal steppe nomad state, or feudal-tribal clusterfuck in the case of Japan. In any "stable" state, goading any of them into any sort of conflict is, well, something that is very slow and very tedious.

But what I believe, first and foremost, is that they don't *want* to invade it, and believe they can over time basically bribe them into joining as the possessed corpse of the US eats itself. We'll see, but I don't think it will happen unless something very drastic and brash occurs.

This is my read of China’s policy too—slow incorporation via negotiation after the collapse of US naval power, which may or may not happen
#7
(03-26-2022, 01:23 PM)Enterobiasis Wrote: China will never invade Taiwan, as Sphag wrote. They are the race least fit to rule the world.

Not only unable, but unwilling. Taiwan, IS however in their "domination zone," if only because it's also Han majority

A climate/ecoregion map reveals many things - The temperate zone of Asia - the bit of land that is actually habitable, and not a total desert, disease-ridden jungle, or a freezer, is basically the core of China + Japan and Korea, and even that land is sorta shitty (Korea and Japan are prohibitively mountainous, China is basically inland Netherlands). But it's enough that if you manage to get entrenched in it, you're basically set forever. The Han were the first and last to do this, and it produced a predictably insular culture that really doesn't care about anything far away apart from getting money.

This is completely contrary to Europe, which even if smaller, contains the biggest pleasantly temperate zone. Big enough so one can never (or with ludicrous difficulty) get fully entrenched like the Han, and always allowing great population movements and expansion. Predictably, the culture is far more adventurous, and curious about what is out there. 

China's destiny is to be the high-level exotic goods merchant in real life, not a colonialist world-domineering power
#8
(03-26-2022, 04:25 PM)Svevlad Wrote:
(03-26-2022, 01:23 PM)Enterobiasis Wrote: China will never invade Taiwan, as Sphag wrote. They are the race least fit to rule the world.

Not only unable, but unwilling. Taiwan, IS however in their "domination zone," if only because it's also Han majority

A climate/ecoregion map reveals many things - The temperate zone of Asia - the bit of land that is actually habitable, and not a total desert, disease-ridden jungle, or a freezer, is basically the core of China + Japan and Korea, and even that land is sorta shitty (Korea and Japan are prohibitively mountainous, China is basically inland Netherlands). But it's enough that if you manage to get entrenched in it, you're basically set forever. The Han were the first and last to do this, and it produced a predictably insular culture that really doesn't care about anything far away apart from getting money.

This is completely contrary to Europe, which even if smaller, contains the biggest pleasantly temperate zone. Big enough so one can never (or with ludicrous difficulty) get fully entrenched like the Han, and always allowing great population movements and expansion. Predictably, the culture is far more adventurous, and curious about what is out there. 

China's destiny is to be the high-level exotic goods merchant in real life, not a colonialist world-domineering power

Very well said



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