12-29-2023, 11:19 AM
Hello Amarnites,
As I have announced previously in the shoutbox, I am taking a bit of a break from posting to focus on work and other life-establishing things. However, as of late my mind has been swimming with the myriad possible outcomes of the upcoming 2024 election, and so I sat down and wrote down my thoughts, which I do for my own personal purposes from time to time. Since I have already written this out in full, and since it may well interest you and kickstart discussion (and I know Anthony is always looking to increase the 'rum's post count), I will post it here for your reading pleasure. Any feedback is welcome, but I would more so like to make this thread an open space for everyone to put their own predictions for the upcoming years of 2024 & 2025, which feel oddly portentous to me... Pat Buchanan wrote the ominous line "Will America survive until 2025?" a few decades ago IIRC, and that feels increasingly prescient. Don't take this too seriously - this was written in one session after a lot of thinking about the predictions made by other figure such as Neil Howe and RamzPaul. Just a collection of broad ideas, and not quite a solid thesis.
Anyways, here is the essay: Potential scenarios for the future of America.
Scenario A (Trump 2024): Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. I see more or less no scenario wherein Trump faces off against Biden in a general election and ends up losing to him, based on ongoing social trends and recent polls. The only way Trump doesn't win the presidency is if the indictments and/or GOP establishment trickery screw him out of the Republican nomination (see Scenario 2).
A 2024 Trump presidency will be different from the 2016 Trump presidency or even a 2020 Trump presidency for the following reasons:
1. Trump will have purged Deep State establishmentarians ("the adults in the room") from his advisors and staff and replaced them with a massive army of loyalists (see the Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025"). Trump now has four years of experience as well as four years of preparing for "battle readiness" with said Trump loyalists. A real "Trumpist" political establishment and network has now been built, which did not exist in 2017.
2. In 2016, Trump was running as a fairly normal 80s- or 90s-style "prosperity president;" in 2024, he will be running as a revolutionary with his back to the wall, who is faced with the choice of winning and actually purging the deep state and "draining the swamp" or going to jail for life. The sheer insanity and hostility from the Left and Deep State have radicalized him.
3. After four years of a disastrous Biden administration, now contrasted unfavorably in the public mind with a fairly prosperous America under Trump between 2017 and 2020, Trump will have a stronger popular mandate (see stronger Trump support among young & especially Hispanic voters - shifting political coalitions).
4. The Left and the Deep State have now exhausted their attacks on him. The "Russian agent" accusations have been proven false, and now they only have trumped-up charges of real estate value inflation. Public fatigue over "Trump hysteria," outside of a very isolated class of (mostly elderly) professional "Trump haters" that regularly watch the likes of MSNBC & Jimmy Kimmel, will likely have already set in.
This then leads to two sub-scenarios:
Sub-scenario A1 (Trump Dictatorship): Trump is inaugurated as POTUS and carries out the most radical and transformative presidential agenda since FDR. He and his loyal agents successfully root out internal and external opposition by any number of means. Democrat city and state governments, now economically floundering and utterly overwhelmed by the Biden immigration policy, now reluctantly cooperate with Trump. After consolidating the power of his "imperial presidency" and taking out his political enemies, Trump and his loyalists will implement a Trumpist nationalist agenda, including the building of a border wall, mass deportations, the building of futuristic "Freedom Cities," enforced freedom of speech on social media, re-shoring of American industries, etc. Parallel movements will likely also take place in Europe.
I don't think that this scenario is particularly likely, as I don't think that the Deep State/Regime/ZOG will go down without fighting tooth and nail to defeat even an implicitly pro-white agenda, but I will entertain the idea for now.
This then leads to two further sub-scenarios for the ultimate climax of this current Crisis era:
Sub-scenario A1.1 (Trump as FDR): Trump finishes out his term successfully. Perhaps he finishes out four years and is succeeded by a loyalist, or perhaps due to some sort of emergency he becomes an FDR-style "president for life." He then at some points leads the nation into a foreign war, most likely with China, which will then fully complete the consolidation of America around him and his agenda. America will win the war and finish out this Crisis era as an authoritarian republic with a Western chauvinist but non-racial civic nationalist ideology, something akin to a more democratic Roman Empire. It is also possible in the following decades that America may return to a more democratic state following the end of war, especially if Trump implements no lasting constitutional changes. The biggest lasting change for us would be the catapulting of "Our Guys" into positions of national and international power and influence by a victorious Trump administration, and we could expect more explicitly pro-white and authoritarian/NS policies in the decades following a successful "Trumpist revolution."
Historical parallels: FDR, Stalin, Hitler, Napoleon
Sub-scenario A1.2 (Trump as Caesar): At some point in the implementation of his agenda, an assassination attempt is made upon Trump. If it fails, refer back to sub-scenario A1.1 but with harsher retribution by Trump against his enemies and a greater likelihood of a declaration of martial law and the seizing of dictatorial powers by Trump. If it succeeds, refer to sub-scenario A2, but with a much stronger Trumpist faction leading to, in all likelihood, a shorter war with a more overwhelming Trumpist victory.
Historical parallels: Caesar
Overall, I consider sub-scenario A1 to be quite unlikely, given how I think that the Deep State will fight tooth and nail to prevent a Trump presidency and the implementation of a (implicit) pro-white agenda.
Sub-scenario A2 (Trump as Lincoln): Trump wins the election, but before or after his inauguration the results are strongly contested. There are any number of "sparks" for this powder keg: Democrat states refusing to recognize Trump's presidency attempting to engage in nullification of a Trumpist federal agenda, federal judges ordering Trump's arrest and Trump's refusal and possible attempts to in turn arrest said judges, mass resignations or at least disobedience and insubordination by Washington bureaucrats and intelligence agents, an assassination attempt by intelligence agents, etc. Any of these scenarios will end up leading to a civil war scenario, in which two parallel governments emerge, a Trumpist loyalist government and a "democratic" Deep State rebel government. States, agencies, armies, communities, and even families will either split off and join a side or will be split themselves along individual ideological lines. Brutal fighting will then ensue. Trump will have the advantage of being nominally the legitimate president and commander-in-chief, as well as having the loyalty of the military rank-and-file. He will also be able to call upon large numbers of irregular militias. The Deep State, in turn, will be able to call upon the resources of intelligence agencies, certain elements of the military (especially the higher brass), billionaire financiers, and Democrat state governments.
They may also be able to call upon the armies and resources of allied European and NATO governments, but it is very likely that a civil war in America would lead to parallel civil wars throughout Europe and most likely in other Anglo states such as Australia and Canada. The modern Western nationalist right is ironically thoroughly globalized, and the withdrawing of American troops stationed abroad to help on the home front will lead to the weakening of the globalist occupation governments of Europe. This, combined with the added stress of the massive global economic crash that will come about if and when America devolves into civil war and inevitable Russian interference and agitation, will lead to the explosion of Europe into a three-sided civil war between the European governments and the EU supported by the US Deep State and Israel on first side; European nationalist groups, parties, and states supported by a Trumpist nationalist government and Russia on the second side; and migrants and Islamists supported by Arab states (and possibly Russia as well) on the third side.
With the aforementioned Trumpist advantage of having the nominal official commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces, combined with the biological superiority of a majority-European faction over the affirmative action armies of their opponents and potential foreign support from Russia, will give the nationalists a good chance of winning, but not without extremely brutal urban warfare throughout the greater Western World. The ultimate short-term winners from this scenario would be Russia and China, as their primary competitors will have greatly damaged themselves in civil war and will need decades to recover. However, in the long term Western civilization will have been saved from liberalism and globalism, as even a scenario in which the globalist Regime wins would most likely necessitate the ascension of some sort of conservative but mostly non-ideological general as a dictator of sorts in order to keep the peace and maintain a now-despised regime in the face of mass resentment and anger by means of giving concessions to nationalist causes (militarism, patriotism, mass deportations, border controls, fewer foreign engagements, re-shoring, etc. - we already see small elements of this in the Biden administration).
Historical parallels: the American, Russian, Chinese, Syrian, Roman, and Spanish Civil Wars
Scenario B (Biden 2024): Trump is convicted in court for insurrection after the primaries, and the GOP establishment use this as an opportunity to boot him from the party and install some neocon like Nikki Haley as the Republican candidate. Trump's conviction then goes to appeal and he runs as an independent, splitting to vote and leading to a Biden victory. This would have a number of consequences:
- The complete discrediting of the GOP, and maybe even its dissolution. Could lead to a new, openly nationalist party being created to take its place.
- The alienation and radicalization of the Republican base. The GOP and American democracy as a whole will be completely discredited in their eyes.
- The continued and accelerated discrediting of the US globalist regime and Deep State, for the aforementioned reasons as well as because of four more years of increasingly incompetent and retarded Biden administration policies.
- As part of this incompetence, the economy will probably crash at some point. May reach Great Depression levels.
- The continued mainstreaming of nationalist and even white nationalist ideas and talking points. This is already happening, and four more years of Biden is the perfect environment for it to continue happening.
This scenario may lead to any number of sub-scenarios, but it is too far in the future to predict. Perhaps a new nationalist party will win the presidency in 2028, leading to a nationalist political revolution that parallels sub-scenario A1, but this time with a far more radical nationalist or even explicitly white nationalist agenda. Perhaps we could see a parallel to sub-scenario A2 but in reverse, wherein Republican states rebel and refuse to recognize Biden; I think that in this scenario a civil war and revolution is still possible, but it's hard to predict how the factions would play out, especially regarding the loyalty of the military rank-and-file, whether they will side with the official president whom they mostly hate (Biden) or the would-be usurper whom they mostly love (Trump). However, if we assume that Biden successfully maintains control and we get another four years of Biden, one effect is that Trump's legacy would then go down as that of a sort of intellectual and symbolic founding father of a future nationalist revolutionary consensus rather than its supreme leader, more similar to Benjamin Franklin than to Lincoln or FDR.
Overall, I think that scenario A offers a more immediate victory at two primary costs: said victory being limited in its scope and achievements by the ideological boundaries of Trump's personal agenda of race-blind MAGA Western nationalism, and the potential destruction that could be wrought upon Western nations and populations by civil war. Scenario B, meanwhile, necessitates four more years of Biden malaise (likely including some sort of huge economic crash, not collapse levels but still very bad for Americans) as the cost to be paid for four more years of Biden-era right-wing radicalization. Think of how mainstream conservative and Republican pundits like Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk started talking about the Left's "anti-white agenda" and the "Great Replacement" in 2023, compared to how they were talking in 2019, or how the Jewish question and the nature of Zionist lobbying power is now open for discussion even with normies, and now extrapolate that trend line forward another four years.
In any case, I think that the momentum is now firmly on the side of "Our Thing," especially regarding the proliferation of True Ideas among the Sensitive Young Men of the White World. Much struggle and suffering yet lies ahead, but I don't think I see a way for ZOG to truly win here. Take hope, Amarnites - our day is fast approaching.
-JR/BDG
As I have announced previously in the shoutbox, I am taking a bit of a break from posting to focus on work and other life-establishing things. However, as of late my mind has been swimming with the myriad possible outcomes of the upcoming 2024 election, and so I sat down and wrote down my thoughts, which I do for my own personal purposes from time to time. Since I have already written this out in full, and since it may well interest you and kickstart discussion (and I know Anthony is always looking to increase the 'rum's post count), I will post it here for your reading pleasure. Any feedback is welcome, but I would more so like to make this thread an open space for everyone to put their own predictions for the upcoming years of 2024 & 2025, which feel oddly portentous to me... Pat Buchanan wrote the ominous line "Will America survive until 2025?" a few decades ago IIRC, and that feels increasingly prescient. Don't take this too seriously - this was written in one session after a lot of thinking about the predictions made by other figure such as Neil Howe and RamzPaul. Just a collection of broad ideas, and not quite a solid thesis.
Anyways, here is the essay: Potential scenarios for the future of America.
Scenario A (Trump 2024): Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. I see more or less no scenario wherein Trump faces off against Biden in a general election and ends up losing to him, based on ongoing social trends and recent polls. The only way Trump doesn't win the presidency is if the indictments and/or GOP establishment trickery screw him out of the Republican nomination (see Scenario 2).
A 2024 Trump presidency will be different from the 2016 Trump presidency or even a 2020 Trump presidency for the following reasons:
1. Trump will have purged Deep State establishmentarians ("the adults in the room") from his advisors and staff and replaced them with a massive army of loyalists (see the Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025"). Trump now has four years of experience as well as four years of preparing for "battle readiness" with said Trump loyalists. A real "Trumpist" political establishment and network has now been built, which did not exist in 2017.
2. In 2016, Trump was running as a fairly normal 80s- or 90s-style "prosperity president;" in 2024, he will be running as a revolutionary with his back to the wall, who is faced with the choice of winning and actually purging the deep state and "draining the swamp" or going to jail for life. The sheer insanity and hostility from the Left and Deep State have radicalized him.
3. After four years of a disastrous Biden administration, now contrasted unfavorably in the public mind with a fairly prosperous America under Trump between 2017 and 2020, Trump will have a stronger popular mandate (see stronger Trump support among young & especially Hispanic voters - shifting political coalitions).
4. The Left and the Deep State have now exhausted their attacks on him. The "Russian agent" accusations have been proven false, and now they only have trumped-up charges of real estate value inflation. Public fatigue over "Trump hysteria," outside of a very isolated class of (mostly elderly) professional "Trump haters" that regularly watch the likes of MSNBC & Jimmy Kimmel, will likely have already set in.
This then leads to two sub-scenarios:
Sub-scenario A1 (Trump Dictatorship): Trump is inaugurated as POTUS and carries out the most radical and transformative presidential agenda since FDR. He and his loyal agents successfully root out internal and external opposition by any number of means. Democrat city and state governments, now economically floundering and utterly overwhelmed by the Biden immigration policy, now reluctantly cooperate with Trump. After consolidating the power of his "imperial presidency" and taking out his political enemies, Trump and his loyalists will implement a Trumpist nationalist agenda, including the building of a border wall, mass deportations, the building of futuristic "Freedom Cities," enforced freedom of speech on social media, re-shoring of American industries, etc. Parallel movements will likely also take place in Europe.
I don't think that this scenario is particularly likely, as I don't think that the Deep State/Regime/ZOG will go down without fighting tooth and nail to defeat even an implicitly pro-white agenda, but I will entertain the idea for now.
This then leads to two further sub-scenarios for the ultimate climax of this current Crisis era:
Sub-scenario A1.1 (Trump as FDR): Trump finishes out his term successfully. Perhaps he finishes out four years and is succeeded by a loyalist, or perhaps due to some sort of emergency he becomes an FDR-style "president for life." He then at some points leads the nation into a foreign war, most likely with China, which will then fully complete the consolidation of America around him and his agenda. America will win the war and finish out this Crisis era as an authoritarian republic with a Western chauvinist but non-racial civic nationalist ideology, something akin to a more democratic Roman Empire. It is also possible in the following decades that America may return to a more democratic state following the end of war, especially if Trump implements no lasting constitutional changes. The biggest lasting change for us would be the catapulting of "Our Guys" into positions of national and international power and influence by a victorious Trump administration, and we could expect more explicitly pro-white and authoritarian/NS policies in the decades following a successful "Trumpist revolution."
Historical parallels: FDR, Stalin, Hitler, Napoleon
Sub-scenario A1.2 (Trump as Caesar): At some point in the implementation of his agenda, an assassination attempt is made upon Trump. If it fails, refer back to sub-scenario A1.1 but with harsher retribution by Trump against his enemies and a greater likelihood of a declaration of martial law and the seizing of dictatorial powers by Trump. If it succeeds, refer to sub-scenario A2, but with a much stronger Trumpist faction leading to, in all likelihood, a shorter war with a more overwhelming Trumpist victory.
Historical parallels: Caesar
Overall, I consider sub-scenario A1 to be quite unlikely, given how I think that the Deep State will fight tooth and nail to prevent a Trump presidency and the implementation of a (implicit) pro-white agenda.
Sub-scenario A2 (Trump as Lincoln): Trump wins the election, but before or after his inauguration the results are strongly contested. There are any number of "sparks" for this powder keg: Democrat states refusing to recognize Trump's presidency attempting to engage in nullification of a Trumpist federal agenda, federal judges ordering Trump's arrest and Trump's refusal and possible attempts to in turn arrest said judges, mass resignations or at least disobedience and insubordination by Washington bureaucrats and intelligence agents, an assassination attempt by intelligence agents, etc. Any of these scenarios will end up leading to a civil war scenario, in which two parallel governments emerge, a Trumpist loyalist government and a "democratic" Deep State rebel government. States, agencies, armies, communities, and even families will either split off and join a side or will be split themselves along individual ideological lines. Brutal fighting will then ensue. Trump will have the advantage of being nominally the legitimate president and commander-in-chief, as well as having the loyalty of the military rank-and-file. He will also be able to call upon large numbers of irregular militias. The Deep State, in turn, will be able to call upon the resources of intelligence agencies, certain elements of the military (especially the higher brass), billionaire financiers, and Democrat state governments.
They may also be able to call upon the armies and resources of allied European and NATO governments, but it is very likely that a civil war in America would lead to parallel civil wars throughout Europe and most likely in other Anglo states such as Australia and Canada. The modern Western nationalist right is ironically thoroughly globalized, and the withdrawing of American troops stationed abroad to help on the home front will lead to the weakening of the globalist occupation governments of Europe. This, combined with the added stress of the massive global economic crash that will come about if and when America devolves into civil war and inevitable Russian interference and agitation, will lead to the explosion of Europe into a three-sided civil war between the European governments and the EU supported by the US Deep State and Israel on first side; European nationalist groups, parties, and states supported by a Trumpist nationalist government and Russia on the second side; and migrants and Islamists supported by Arab states (and possibly Russia as well) on the third side.
With the aforementioned Trumpist advantage of having the nominal official commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces, combined with the biological superiority of a majority-European faction over the affirmative action armies of their opponents and potential foreign support from Russia, will give the nationalists a good chance of winning, but not without extremely brutal urban warfare throughout the greater Western World. The ultimate short-term winners from this scenario would be Russia and China, as their primary competitors will have greatly damaged themselves in civil war and will need decades to recover. However, in the long term Western civilization will have been saved from liberalism and globalism, as even a scenario in which the globalist Regime wins would most likely necessitate the ascension of some sort of conservative but mostly non-ideological general as a dictator of sorts in order to keep the peace and maintain a now-despised regime in the face of mass resentment and anger by means of giving concessions to nationalist causes (militarism, patriotism, mass deportations, border controls, fewer foreign engagements, re-shoring, etc. - we already see small elements of this in the Biden administration).
Historical parallels: the American, Russian, Chinese, Syrian, Roman, and Spanish Civil Wars
Scenario B (Biden 2024): Trump is convicted in court for insurrection after the primaries, and the GOP establishment use this as an opportunity to boot him from the party and install some neocon like Nikki Haley as the Republican candidate. Trump's conviction then goes to appeal and he runs as an independent, splitting to vote and leading to a Biden victory. This would have a number of consequences:
- The complete discrediting of the GOP, and maybe even its dissolution. Could lead to a new, openly nationalist party being created to take its place.
- The alienation and radicalization of the Republican base. The GOP and American democracy as a whole will be completely discredited in their eyes.
- The continued and accelerated discrediting of the US globalist regime and Deep State, for the aforementioned reasons as well as because of four more years of increasingly incompetent and retarded Biden administration policies.
- As part of this incompetence, the economy will probably crash at some point. May reach Great Depression levels.
- The continued mainstreaming of nationalist and even white nationalist ideas and talking points. This is already happening, and four more years of Biden is the perfect environment for it to continue happening.
This scenario may lead to any number of sub-scenarios, but it is too far in the future to predict. Perhaps a new nationalist party will win the presidency in 2028, leading to a nationalist political revolution that parallels sub-scenario A1, but this time with a far more radical nationalist or even explicitly white nationalist agenda. Perhaps we could see a parallel to sub-scenario A2 but in reverse, wherein Republican states rebel and refuse to recognize Biden; I think that in this scenario a civil war and revolution is still possible, but it's hard to predict how the factions would play out, especially regarding the loyalty of the military rank-and-file, whether they will side with the official president whom they mostly hate (Biden) or the would-be usurper whom they mostly love (Trump). However, if we assume that Biden successfully maintains control and we get another four years of Biden, one effect is that Trump's legacy would then go down as that of a sort of intellectual and symbolic founding father of a future nationalist revolutionary consensus rather than its supreme leader, more similar to Benjamin Franklin than to Lincoln or FDR.
Overall, I think that scenario A offers a more immediate victory at two primary costs: said victory being limited in its scope and achievements by the ideological boundaries of Trump's personal agenda of race-blind MAGA Western nationalism, and the potential destruction that could be wrought upon Western nations and populations by civil war. Scenario B, meanwhile, necessitates four more years of Biden malaise (likely including some sort of huge economic crash, not collapse levels but still very bad for Americans) as the cost to be paid for four more years of Biden-era right-wing radicalization. Think of how mainstream conservative and Republican pundits like Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk started talking about the Left's "anti-white agenda" and the "Great Replacement" in 2023, compared to how they were talking in 2019, or how the Jewish question and the nature of Zionist lobbying power is now open for discussion even with normies, and now extrapolate that trend line forward another four years.
In any case, I think that the momentum is now firmly on the side of "Our Thing," especially regarding the proliferation of True Ideas among the Sensitive Young Men of the White World. Much struggle and suffering yet lies ahead, but I don't think I see a way for ZOG to truly win here. Take hope, Amarnites - our day is fast approaching.
-JR/BDG